subsequence regret
High-Dimensional Prediction for Sequential Decision Making
Noarov, Georgy, Ramalingam, Ramya, Roth, Aaron, Xie, Stephan
We study the problem of making predictions of an adversarially chosen high-dimensional state that are unbiased subject to an arbitrary collection of conditioning events, with the goal of tailoring these events to downstream decision makers. We give efficient algorithms for solving this problem, as well as a number of applications that stem from choosing an appropriate set of conditioning events. For example, we can efficiently make predictions targeted at polynomially many decision makers, giving each of them optimal swap regret if they best-respond to our predictions. We generalize this to online combinatorial optimization, where the decision makers have a very large action space, to give the first algorithms offering polynomially many decision makers no regret on polynomially many subsequences that may depend on their actions and the context. We apply these results to get efficient no-subsequence-regret algorithms in extensive-form games (EFGs), yielding a new family of regret guarantees for EFGs that generalizes some existing EFG regret notions, e.g. regret to informed causal deviations, and is generally incomparable to other known such notions. Next, we develop a novel transparent alternative to conformal prediction for building valid online adversarial multiclass prediction sets. We produce class scores that downstream algorithms can use for producing valid-coverage prediction sets, as if these scores were the true conditional class probabilities. We show this implies strong conditional validity guarantees including set-size-conditional and multigroup-fair coverage for polynomially many downstream prediction sets. Moreover, our class scores can be guaranteed to have improved $L_2$ loss, cross-entropy loss, and generally any Bregman loss, compared to any collection of benchmark models, yielding a high-dimensional real-valued version of omniprediction.
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Online Minimax Multiobjective Optimization: Multicalibeating and Other Applications
Lee, Daniel, Noarov, Georgy, Pai, Mallesh, Roth, Aaron
We introduce a simple but general online learning framework in which a learner plays against an adversary in a vector-valued game that changes every round. Even though the learner's objective is not convex-concave (and so the minimax theorem does not apply), we give a simple algorithm that can compete with the setting in which the adversary must announce their action first, with optimally diminishing regret. We demonstrate the power of our framework by using it to (re)derive optimal bounds and efficient algorithms across a variety of domains, ranging from multicalibration to a large set of no regret algorithms, to a variant of Blackwell's approachability theorem for polytopes with fast convergence rates. As a new application, we show how to ``(multi)calibeat'' an arbitrary collection of forecasters -- achieving an exponentially improved dependence on the number of models we are competing against, compared to prior work.
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